Minnesota Timberwolves Offense Breakdown
Can Gobert/KAT pairing run an efficient offense?
The Minnesota Timberwolves are adjusting to the Two-Big life, and it is not going great - at least on the offensive end. Although they have many underlying issues that are causing these problems, the most significant impact on their offensive efficiency is the lack of playmaking, creation, and flow on the offensive end, especially with both Gobert & KAT on the floor at the same time. Throughout this breakdown, I will be referencing stats taken either from Cleaning the Glass or from my own film breakdown and analysis through 11/4.
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Currently, the most used Timberwolves lineup is their starting lineup of Russell/Edwards/McDaniels/Gobert/Towns that have logged 282 possessions on the court - roughly 31% of their 912 possessions so far this season. The Timberwolves starting 5 is currently 3rd in the NBA for most used lineups and ranks as the 6th worst efficient lineup of all lineups with at least 100 possessions played (More rough news for Nets/Mavs - touching more about that this week). This lineup has a Net Rating of -10.7, with an offensive efficiency of 96.8 (YIKES!!) and defensive efficiency of 107.5.
If we took those numbers and ranked them compared to where the league currently would be the worst offense by 6 points per 100 possessions and the 3rd best defense. Gobert impacting the defense makes sense, he essentially has consistently anchored top-10 defenses for the past 6 seasons. The offensive numbers are more concerning with the fit being only a part of the issues that the Timberwolves are seeing on the court. When adding any new players the initial 10-15 games are always slightly weird, so this could all change as time and familiarity increase as well.
The overall numbers are rough, but where it gets really interesting is the dynamic when one of the Gobert/KAT pairing is off the court.
Gobert On/KAT Off: 202.2 Off, 100.0 Def — 179 total Poss, most used lineup 19 poss.
KAT On/Gobert Off: 116.5 Off, 119.2 Def — 255 total Poss, most used lineup 19 poss.
If it isn’t clear by the numbers when Gobert is on the Timberwolves’ defense is ELITE and the offense stinks. When KAT is on the floor the Timberwolves’ offense is ELITE, but their defense stinks. This is the crux of the issue for the Timberwolves, how to blend and balance two ELITE forces that are currently polar opposites when it comes to becoming ELITE.
Two-Big Issues
I touched on decision-making struggles, but the main problem I noticed when watching the film was the creation and flow (or lack of) of the offense.
On top of this, the only above-average players on the team when it comes to their Ast/Usage are KAT & McLaughin, meaning DeAngelo Russell and Anthony Edwards handle the ball a ton but are not creating a lot for others compared to their usage. Interesting stat - Gobert has his lowest Assisted Rate since 2015-16.
When KAT attacks or ISOs, Gobert is clogging space so on drives his man can just help in the lane knowing that KAT isn’t going to be able to make all of the passes he needs to yet.
KAT has a slight advantage with their “Burn” cut for a lob, but the pass is…well bad.
Bad passes like this lead to stagnant offense where the ball isn’t even piercing the 3 point line.
If Gobert sets a ballscreen, which is his strongest asset on offense, then KAT and most of the time Anthony Edwards are just standing and watching a D’Angelo Rossell/Gobert pick and roll.
Another interesting thing that is an issue is when running Double Ballscreens, sometimes both roll instead of having KAT pop and Gobert roll.
Anthony Edwards ended last season on a tear and part of this was the 5-Out spacing that he was provided with KAT at center, something that is obviously gone with the addition of Gobert.
It now becomes really important for Ant and KAT to be paired together to get the most out of Ant, but then this also takes away opportunities for him to run the offense alone without another high-usage player.
The solution that Finch and staff seemed to find was pairing Ant with Naz Reid who has been really good in the chances he has had (+20 on/off differential, & 176 possessions with him on the court a +17 Net Rating).
4 Out
Spacing
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